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Archives 2010s >> 2013 News Talkbacks

berrywr
Weather Analyst

Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL

Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean
Wed Jul 10 2013 08:28 PM

Last night's NAM and low level models are in that camp. The problem with the NHC graphic is, it has to assume Chantal will have enough vertical depth and overall structure to be steered by the mid-level flow. As Lois mentioned; you don't see many systems this far south "racing" west...it takes a pretty strong low to mid level ridge to do that and for any of us who enjoyed being sandwiched between that big upper level trough and the ridge last week knows all to well that was quite an impressive plume of moisture shot up to Canada. I think the models have done a fantastic job and we all have to remember what the parameters of each of these models are; one cannot expect the GFS and ECMWF to handle shallow systems well; that's not what their designed to do. One of the things I have noted over the past few hurricane seasons is this persistent shear aloft and I'm not just referring to the Central Atlantic Tropospheric Trough but just enough of a Eastern US trough that separates the mid-continental upper hot ridge from its wet cousin the upper Bermuda ridge. It doesn't look like much in the low to mid levels but up in the 300 to 200 millibars...that trough is quite pronounced and if Chantal was a deeper system then NC might have something to worry about. I've seen that shear pretty consistent due to this trough that sets up over the Eastern US aloft and given where all the upper level players are right now; there is a band of 30 to 50 knots of shear aloft right over Chantal's current path...if she remains on this persistent 280 vector; it's over. It's hard to fly against persistence given how shallow she is. What I fear is a center reformation further north.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Watching two Low Chance Areas	MikeC	Wed Jul 10 2013 08:28 PM
Re: INVEST 97L and area near the Bahamas.	danielw	Wed Jul 17 2013 07:13 AM
INVEST 97L and area near the Bahamas.	danielw	Tue Jul 16 2013 07:28 PM
Re: Watching two Low Chance Areas	doug	Sat Jul 13 2013 01:22 PM
Re: Remnants of Chantal	doug	Fri Jul 12 2013 11:33 AM
Re: Remnants of Chantal	berrywr	Fri Jul 12 2013 02:35 AM
Re: Remnants of Chantal	MikeC	Thu Jul 11 2013 09:52 PM
Re: Remnants of Chantal	Ed Dunham	Thu Jul 11 2013 05:07 PM
Re: Remnants of Chantal	Lamar-Plant City	Thu Jul 11 2013 02:33 PM
Remnants of Chantal	Ed Dunham	Thu Jul 11 2013 02:21 PM
chantel north of hispanola	Robert	Thu Jul 11 2013 03:58 AM
Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean	ftlaudbob	Wed Jul 10 2013 08:37 PM
Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean	berrywr	Wed Jul 10 2013 08:28 PM
Re: Chantal Barely a Storm in the Caribbean	berrywr	Wed Jul 10 2013 08:09 PM
Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean	ftlaudbob	Wed Jul 10 2013 05:55 PM
Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean	LoisCane	Wed Jul 10 2013 03:04 PM
Re: Chantal Barely a Storm in the Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Wed Jul 10 2013 02:32 PM
Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean	OrlandoDan	Wed Jul 10 2013 09:41 AM
Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Wed Jul 10 2013 06:02 AM
Re: Chantal In the Eastern Caribbean	cieldumort	Wed Jul 10 2013 05:51 AM
Re: Chantal Moves Into the Caribbean Sea	typhoon_tip	Wed Jul 10 2013 05:26 AM
Re: Chantal Moves Into the Caribbean Sea	berrywr	Wed Jul 10 2013 03:33 AM
Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean	scottsvb	Wed Jul 10 2013 01:20 AM
Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Tue Jul 09 2013 05:31 PM
Re: Chantal Moves Into the Caribbean Sea	Ed Dunham	Tue Jul 09 2013 05:08 PM
Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean	danielw	Tue Jul 09 2013 03:07 PM
Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean	Hawkeyewx	Tue Jul 09 2013 01:44 PM
Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean	MikeC	Tue Jul 09 2013 01:42 PM
Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean	MikeC	Tue Jul 09 2013 01:33 PM
Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean	danielw	Tue Jul 09 2013 01:32 PM
Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean	danielw	Tue Jul 09 2013 12:52 PM
Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean	danielw	Tue Jul 09 2013 12:33 PM
Re: Chantal Moves Toward the Caribbean	LoisCane	Tue Jul 09 2013 03:37 AM

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