Because of the low water temperatures and poor presentation ...until last night... of the system they went conservative with their forecast intensity. Must remember that many of the models yesterday didn't recognize it and few kept it alive more than a very short period.
When you looked at her yesterday visually w/o relying on the models you could see the structure setting up and the long tail dipping down into the ITZ which is a classic Cape Verde signature.
If you looked at the WV loop you could see that darkest, driest air was moving to the West.
Sometimes we rely too much on models. Then again the models insisted she was forming back when we couldnt' even see her and ... continuity in modeling means a lot even though they dropped it yesterday.
He is going into dry air and lower water temperatures. And, he is small. The stronger he gets now before he hits the worst of the negative conditions will help it down the road.
Now the models are intensifying it near PR into a Hurricane.
With models it's best to watch the patterns vs anyone model run.
Compelling storm to watch ... and yes I would say it's a sign of things to come.
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