The 25/00Z run of the GFS does ramp up the intensity after the five day point and the extended run brings Dorian well into the Bahamas before the turn to the north begins. Models are likely to bounce east or west from run to run on how far to the west Dorian will get. It looks like the upper level low near 23N 66W could become a major player in determining the eventual track of Dorian. It could pull up what might remain of the dry air to the north while fortifying a firm narrow ridge between the upper low and the tropical cyclone. At the 5-day point the GFS puts the upper low near Bermuda at 300MB. ED
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