most of the convection in the area just broke down in the last few hours. not just the convergence over florida but most of it offshore as well. hard to tell if anything is going on with all the shear, but on the ir2 you can still see the kink in the low level flow. the system hasnt hit it off yet, and there have been only modest pressure falls with the surface high retreating (more heating over the east). so scratch the confidence back to down to 25%.. those model solutions making a low had to mean something. maybe not a named system, but at least a discrete low pressure system.. come on.
have to see if they keep insisting on development.. remember that low in may formed days after models first jumped on it (and never amounted to anything). by the way, the old cutaway energy is still dousing texas. if that thing would have stalled in the gulf.. probably allison redux.
polls are popular, might as well throw this one out: