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Archives 2010s >> 2013 News Talkbacks

weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist

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Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.

Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic
Wed Aug 14 2013 11:22 PM

Don't forget also that recon is flying AL92 tomorrow, and that data will be ingested into the models (maybe starting with the 16/00Z runs?), so that'll make a big difference.

Looking at the forecast, take a gander at the 15/00Z 500 mb analysis from SPC: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_130815_00.gif

There is a series of shortwave troughs over the northern CONUS: one over eastern Nebraska and the other over eastern Montana. These shortwave troughs will act to amplify the longwave trough over the east coast and allow the ridge over the western CONUS to build, which will result in a col (a saddle point in the wind/pressure field) being set up over the Gulf of Mexico. These tend to result in two things: (1) weak steering currents, and (2) low model predictability. Since the aforementioned longwave trough amplification will result in large-scale height falls over the eastern half of the US with height rises over the western/central US, my thinking is that the northern models will win the day in the end, meaning people from Corpus Christi to Pensacola are probably the most under the gun. This general idea is what the GFS and ECMWF have been suggesting for the past few runs.

--------------------
Jason
http://www.jasonsweathercenter.com
Andrew '92 - Lili '02 - Katrina '05 - Rita '05 - Humberto '07 - Gustav '08 - Ike '08 - Isaac '12 - Sandy '12

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Erin Forms, West Caribbean Wave Struggles	MikeC	Wed Aug 14 2013 11:22 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	berrywr	Fri Aug 16 2013 02:52 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	Ed Dunham	Fri Aug 16 2013 09:38 AM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	doug	Fri Aug 16 2013 09:03 AM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	berrywr	Fri Aug 16 2013 12:46 AM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	LoisCane	Thu Aug 15 2013 11:26 AM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	MikeC	Thu Aug 15 2013 11:07 AM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	doug	Thu Aug 15 2013 07:22 AM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	berrywr	Thu Aug 15 2013 12:16 AM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	weatherguy08	Wed Aug 14 2013 11:22 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	ralphfla	Wed Aug 14 2013 11:11 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	Random Chaos	Wed Aug 14 2013 11:09 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	ralphfla	Wed Aug 14 2013 10:02 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	danielw	Wed Aug 14 2013 09:34 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	ralphfla	Wed Aug 14 2013 09:26 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	Random Chaos	Wed Aug 14 2013 09:20 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	danielw	Wed Aug 14 2013 07:54 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	berrywr	Wed Aug 14 2013 06:23 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	berrywr	Wed Aug 14 2013 06:11 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	Hawkeyewx	Wed Aug 14 2013 04:54 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	Joeyfl	Wed Aug 14 2013 03:17 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	MikeC	Wed Aug 14 2013 02:52 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	Tazmanian93	Wed Aug 14 2013 01:57 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	Wingman51	Wed Aug 14 2013 01:24 PM
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic	berrywr	Wed Aug 14 2013 03:07 AM

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