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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Invest 97L Enters Eastern Caribbean Sea
      Wed Sep 04 2013 02:18 PM

Recon is flying through 97L now and is presently verifying westerly winds. It's possible we see an upgrade today, and also equally possible that we do not. Most likely, NHC's decision will hang on how well defined the LLC is, given that there is marginal convection .. earlier in the week we had a closed circulation with associated shower and thunderstorm activity, at times abundant, but the circulation was broad, and ultimately opened back up more or less far too quickly to count. Then the showers and storms fell apart in rapid succession.

Lowest pressures so far being found appear to be about 1010mb, with winds generally at or below 25 knots.

Edit: Latest odds given by NHC at 1:59PM EDT were 50%, but closer inspection of the most recent passes (recon is now flying through the southern portions of 97L), coupled with high res satellite loops, leads me to believe the chances for an upgrade today are probably closer to 75%.

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 04 2013 02:29 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Gabrielle Weakens South of Puerto Rico. Heavy Rains Continue. Ed DunhamAdministrator Wed Sep 04 2013 02:18 PM
. * * Re: TD Gabrielle and 99L Random Chaos   Fri Sep 06 2013 12:26 AM
. * * TD Gabrielle and 99L danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 05 2013 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gabrielle South of Puerto Rico cieldumort   Thu Sep 05 2013 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gabrielle Hawkeyewx   Thu Sep 05 2013 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gabrielle Random Chaos   Thu Sep 05 2013 06:25 AM
. * * Tropical Storm Gabrielle Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Sep 04 2013 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Southeast of Puerto Rico May Develop Very Soon Random Chaos   Wed Sep 04 2013 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Southeast of Puerto Rico May Develop Very Soon typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 04 2013 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Southeast of Puerto Rico May Develop Very Soon ralphfla   Wed Sep 04 2013 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Southeast of Puerto Rico May Develop Very Soon typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 04 2013 06:05 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Southeast of Puerto Rico May Develop Very Soon typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 04 2013 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Enters Eastern Caribbean Sea Hawkeyewx   Wed Sep 04 2013 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Enters Eastern Caribbean Sea doug   Wed Sep 04 2013 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Enters Eastern Caribbean Sea typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 04 2013 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Enters Eastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 04 2013 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Enters Eastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 04 2013 03:52 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Enters Eastern Caribbean Sea cieldumort   Wed Sep 04 2013 02:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Enters Eastern Caribbean Sea doug   Wed Sep 04 2013 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Enters Eastern Caribbean Sea Fairhopian   Wed Sep 04 2013 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Enters Eastern Caribbean Sea MichaelA   Wed Sep 04 2013 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Enters Eastern Caribbean Sea typhoon_tip   Tue Sep 03 2013 04:31 PM
. * * Re: 97L RECON flight plans scottsvb   Mon Sep 02 2013 10:16 PM
. * * 97L RECON flight plans danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 02 2013 12:59 PM

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