cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Tropical Storm Gabrielle South of Puerto Rico
Thu Sep 05 2013 11:15 AM
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With the advantage of visible satellite this morning we can see what is most likely Gabrielle's original LLC trecking off to the WNW, with the mid-level vort proceeding more northerly, perhaps even with an eastward component.
I have no doubt that Gabrielle was a bona fide tropical cyclone, but if a new LLC does not develop much closer to the mid-level vort, and soon, Gabrielle the tropical cyclone may end up having been very short lived.
With all of the dry air around, in some ways this year has reminded me of 2006, although that is perhaps not the best analog. For example, even 2006 had its first hurricane form before September. Being the first week of September without a single hurricane yet this season may allow for the year as a whole to attain as many named storms as widely expected, but creates a challenge of giant proportions for the year to end up with as many hurricanes as forecast.
Now that Garbrielle has decoupled, it appears that the separate area of disturbed weather to her northeast is successfully siphoning off convection, and enhancing its mid to lower level vorticity. While it could be difficult given close proximity, there is clearly an increasing chance that this other disturbance eventually becomes a new tropical cyclone that persists in disrupting Gabrielle, possibly to the point of replacing her as the sole TC in that immediate region.
At present, a new LLC will probably attempt to form underneath the deeper convection hanging with the MLC, but for any new LLC to become established, the old LLC needs to continue scooting out of the way, and the fairly large and well organized cyclonic envelop associated with it would then need to start falling apart at at good clip.
An alternative, but perhaps somewhat less likely solution where Gabrielle could stay alive, would be that no new LLC forms closer to or within the detatched mid level vort, with her now nearly naked LLC to continuing west-northwest, just over the DR or through the archipelago, slowly firing up all new organized convection along the way, or at least at some point in the future.
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