Invest 95L Lounge - FLHurricane.com

Jeff Masters is looking at the same information the rest of us are looking at. The 850mb chart at 96 hours shows this system in the SW Gulf of Mexico where it could be picked up by the latter shortwave associated with the surface cold front. The GFS loses it after 5 days and judging by the data I've looked at this afternoon this tropical system for the moment isn't projected to be that strong. It simply is unclear whether this system will take on a baroclinic low or a separate tropical identity. It's been somewhat dry of late over the SE USA as the region has been under NW flow aloft courtesy of the mid-continental ridge further west with troughing over the Eastern USA which has been commonplace throughout once again this tropical season making the upper level uninhabitable for tropical systems to its east. But as we roll towards autumn the westerlies begin to shift further southward and of course more major shortwaves and thus more cold fronts.

Courtesy of WPC Extended Forecast Discussion -

THE 17/00Z CYCLE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN WERE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA UNTIL DAY
5 WITH THIS 'PROCESSION' OF CYCLONES AND THEIR ATTENDANT COLD
FRONTS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES FROM OREGON TO MASSACHUSETTS (IN A GENERAL SENSE
ALONG/NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE). THE DIFFERENCES CROP UP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SEEPING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND
THE COMPLEX TIMING AND THERMAL INTERACTION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SHEARING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. CONVERSELY...THE
EAST COAST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS--HOW FIRMLY THESE COLD FRONTS CAN
DELINEATE THE 'CONTINENTAL' AIRMASS FROM THE MARITIME SUBTROPICAL
AIRMASS IN THE SOUTHEAST? ALONG THIS BENT...WILL THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION BE SUFFICIENT TO 'AGITATE' A BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN? THAT SAID... THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF
WERE GENERALLY GOOD FORECAST 'AIDS' IN DETERMINING THE STRUCTURE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE TROPICAL GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN.
AM ANTICIPATING THAT SOME INTERACTION IS LIKELY THIS MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST WITH THE REMNANT/DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY (DAY 5 THROUGH
DAY 7) ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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