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Archives 2010s >> 2013 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Invest 95L Lounge
Sun Sep 22 2013 12:21 PM

The tiny circulation of 95L bumped up against the cold front pushing through south Texas early Saturday morning. However, based on Brownsville radar as well as microwave passes, the two did not initially merge, and 95L remained quite distinct for some time. The Invest area of low pressure did however start generating deep convection in response to a solid baroclinic kick from the approaching front and associated upper level trough.

As of this reply, Sunday morning, Sept. 22, it appears based on conventional satellite and microwave imagery that 95L has now merged with the front, and that this merger has resulted in the formation of a more vigorous frontal low. Maximum sustained winds indicated by a 1233Z Windsat pass were mostly in the 20-30 knot range, with some gusts in excess of 50 knots. This low is presently situated near 26N 93.5W, with movement to the east.

Several different model runs this past week were suggesting something of this nature taking place, with a merger then resulting in the development of a tropical cyclone while in the northern GOM this weekend into early next week, or while traversing the Gulf Stream later next week. Given that this low has been getting better organized and should have at least another day or two over very warm waters, it is possible that it spins off from the front and gets a name. The next name on the list for 2013 is Jerry.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Invest 95L Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Sep 22 2013 12:21 PM
Re: Invest 95L Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Sep 22 2013 12:21 PM
Re: Invest 95L Lounge	MikeC	Tue Sep 17 2013 10:08 PM
Re: Invest 95L Lounge	StormMan	Tue Sep 17 2013 06:56 PM
Re: Invest 95L Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Sep 17 2013 10:54 PM
Re: Invest 95L Lounge	Ed Dunham	Wed Sep 18 2013 12:38 AM
Re: Invest 95L Lounge	Ed Dunham	Wed Sep 18 2013 01:31 PM
Re: Invest 95L Lounge	doug	Wed Sep 18 2013 03:02 PM
Re: Invest 95L Lounge	Ed Dunham	Fri Sep 20 2013 12:45 AM
Re: Invest 95L Lounge	Ed Dunham	Sun Sep 22 2013 06:07 PM
Re: Invest 95L Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Sep 23 2013 07:30 PM
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge	Ed Dunham	Tue Sep 17 2013 10:44 PM
Re: Invest 95L Lounge	doug	Tue Sep 17 2013 11:25 AM
Re: Invest 95L Lounge	berrywr	Tue Sep 17 2013 05:39 PM
Re: Invest 95L Lounge	Owlguin	Tue Sep 17 2013 02:49 PM
Re: Invest 95L Lounge	doug	Tue Sep 17 2013 03:58 PM

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