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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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ralphfla
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 26
Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued
      Sun Oct 06 2013 12:58 AM


Karen has essentially remained stationary for the last several hours
and that lack of motion...coupled with increasing upper-level winds
ahead of an eastward-moving deep-layer trough...has increased the
shear significantly across the cyclone. The result is that
convection has weakened and become displaced well to the east and
southeast of the low-level circulation center. Satellite
classifications from TAFB supported keeping Karen as a borderline
tropical storm at 00z...but the lack of convection near the center
since then requires a downgrade to depression status at the 03z
advisory time. Given that the vertical wind shear is forecast to
get even stronger over the next 2 days...re-strengthening back to
tropical storm status is not likely...especially since the
mid-levels of the troposphere will become increasingly drier

Not going back to a storm will be lucky to hold onto a depression

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* A Messy Karen in Central Gulf MikeCAdministrator Sun Oct 06 2013 12:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued ralphfla   Sun Oct 06 2013 12:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued OrlandoDan   Sat Oct 05 2013 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued ralphfla   Sat Oct 05 2013 04:35 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 05 2013 02:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued ralphfla   Fri Oct 04 2013 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued ralphfla   Fri Oct 04 2013 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued Lamar-Plant City   Fri Oct 04 2013 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 04 2013 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued scottsvb   Fri Oct 04 2013 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 04 2013 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued danielwAdministrator   Fri Oct 04 2013 02:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued danielwAdministrator   Fri Oct 04 2013 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued ralphfla   Fri Oct 04 2013 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued danielwAdministrator   Fri Oct 04 2013 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued SirCane   Thu Oct 03 2013 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 03 2013 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 03 2013 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued ralphfla   Thu Oct 03 2013 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued MichaelA   Thu Oct 03 2013 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued berrywr   Thu Oct 03 2013 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued berrywr   Thu Oct 03 2013 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 03 2013 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 03 2013 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 03 2013 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 03 2013 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued Fairhopian   Thu Oct 03 2013 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 03 2013 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued Fairhopian   Thu Oct 03 2013 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 03 2013 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Karen forms in Southern Gulf, Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches Issued MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 03 2013 09:50 AM

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