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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 275 (Idalia) , Major: 275 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 275 (Idalia) Major: 275 (Idalia)
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Are Seasonal Forecasts Worthwhile
      Fri Nov 01 2013 05:29 AM

Note that 'storm preparation' and 'resource planning' are two quite different activities. EM folks never use the seasonal predictions when they are involved with an actual storm preparation. Resource planning mostly involves monetary probabilities for the movement of personnel, supplies and equipment into affected areas after the storm, or staging of equipment and evacuation of special needs folks before the storm. A busy outlook suggests the potential for greater seasonal expenditures than an outlook for a quieter season - its a cost-allocation exercise that has no impact on the actual EM response associated with a particular storm. However, if the seasonal forecast turns out to be way off base, then so is the resource planning exercise and that leads to questions about the value of the forecast. Its certainly true that the 2013 seasonal forecasts didn't have any meaningful value.
ED

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Are Seasonal Forecasts Worthwhile? Owlguin Fri Nov 01 2013 05:29 AM
. * * Re: Are Seasonal Forecasts Worthwhile Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Nov 01 2013 05:29 AM
. * * Re: Are Seasonal Forecasts Worthwhile doug   Tue Nov 05 2013 06:28 PM

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