Persistent Invest 93L Remains on the Cusp

Recon is now entering 93L from the northwest just in time to find the system undergoing another serious round of northerly shear and dry air entrainment.

As of 1:15PM EDT, the entire circulation is now exposed, with barely one or two showers hanging on to the south of the LLC. While the air to the north, northwest, and northeast of the well-defined circulation is not the very driest ever, there is just so much of it, that 93L's repeated attempts to become viable are being repeatedly blown away.

With NHC odds of development back up to 70% as of 8AM EDT, this may be one of the trickiest Invests we have seen in some time. The degree to which "could be" and "should be" systems have already been struggling with the abundance of dry air and shear this year harkens back to 2006, which ended up busting seasonal forecasts well to the downside. For seasonal forecasts in 2014, most are already on the low side.

Some Pros & Cons for 93L's 48-hour development chances:

Pro: Well defined surface circulation
Pro: Pockets of winds already near or at Tropical Storm force
Pro: Persistence
Pro: Positive MJO Pulse
Pro: Gradually increasing SSTs going forward
Pro: Some decrease in shear already underway, albeit unevenly

Con: Shear is still moderate, overall
Con: Well above average levels of dry air remain throughout the basin
Con: "Graveyard" ahead.

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