Bertha Strengthening but Forecast to Stay Away from Land Areas

9:15 AM EDT 4 August 2014 Update

Tropical Storm Bertha is now a 70 MPH Storm, and forecast to become a hurricane later today or tomorrow. Beyond rip current and high waves along the coast, Bertha should stay offshore.

Bertha is forecast to remain away from land both the US and Bermuda. Toward the end of the forecast, parts of Newfoundland are in the Cone.

Models may drift a bit west today, but still should be well offshore.

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8:30 PM EDT 1 August 2014 Update

Bertha has pressed on through another day of marginal support, at best, during the day Friday, as a poorly organized tropical storm.

As of 8:30 PM EDT, recon has found just enough wind to support the current advisory of 50MPH. In addition, convection began firing right over the LLC late this afternoon, and continues to do so tonight, as Bertha finally appears to be traveling within a zone of at least temporarily lower wind shear, as well as traveling over warmer waters. Thus, it is possible that strengthening resumes overnight tonight.

Saturday, deteriorating conditions are expected in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, but this is not all bad. Much of the Antilles has been struggling with moderate to severe rainfall deficits.

Ciel

7:30 AM EDT 1 August 2014 Update
August begins with Bertha east of the Caribbean, but she is very sheared. The NHC's current forecast seems good. Bertha will likely stay a Tropical Storm (and fluctuate a bit up and down) over the next few days. The Watch/Warning areas should expect Tropical Storm conditions and rain.

The first areas to see gusts toward tropical storm force are in Martinique and St Lucia later this morning.

Beyond the islands Bertha may approach the eastern Bahamas, but eventually likely will curve out to sea.

French Antilles Radar Recording of Bertha Approach Alt player

Barbuda Radar Recording of Bertha Approach Alt player

Original Update
Just enough deep convection has developed just about atop of the low level circulation of 93L that NHC has concluded sufficient organization now warrants an upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm Bertha. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 45MPH, with higher gusts.

Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia & Dominica.

Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, U.S. Virgin Islands, St Vincent & the Grenadines.

Ciel

Caribbean Islands Weather Reports

Antilles Weather Radar

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Edited by MikeC (Mon Aug 04 2014 09:22 AM)

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