cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Special Central Pacific Forecast Lounge: Double Trouble Hurricanes Iselle & Julio
Sat Aug 02 2014 12:04 AM
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Rarely seen incredibly active Pacific from west to east this week.
Two systems in particular need to be closely watched by the Hawaiian Islands. One, now a hurricane, and the other, a developing very large tropical low which already has the makings of a tropical depression.
In the image below, I have notated just the Central & Eastern Pacific features, with two of the tropical lows in these basins already named: Central Pacific Genevieve & Eastern Pacific Hurricane Iselle.
Genevieve is passing safely by well south of the islands. It is the eastern Pacific hurricane, and the very large incipient tropical depression behind it, that have the potential to reach the islands later next week, and they may do so with some unusual intensity, as the environment looks like it could be quite favorable.
Early model runs are nearly unanimous in bringing two potent tropical cyclones very close or directly over the islands around the 7th to 10th of August. It is rare that you see this kind of unanimity so far in advance without at least a reasonable degree of verification, and given that the Pacific has been on fire so far this year, and tropical cyclone forecasting going out to two weeks has become much better over the past few years, these forecasts may be worth taking note of.
ECMWF "European"
GFS "American"
Multiple Models & Official NHC 5 Day
Edited Title to reflect addition of newly-named Julio, as well as our decision to use this forum as a de facto East Pac Forecast Lounge for these two tropical cyclones, as they may both impact the state of Hawaii.
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