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Ophelia slowly winding down but not without still causing problems as center near Norfolk, but effects widespread. Elsewhere, TD17 expected to go fish
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 27 (Idalia) , Major: 27 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 27 (Idalia) Major: 27 (Idalia)
17.4N 52.0W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1003mb
W at 12 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2015 Storm Forum

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for 2015
      Thu Jan 01 2015 12:17 AM

SST trends, and even SST climatology, suggest about a 65% probability of at least a firm El Nino event during the heart of the Atlantic 2015 hurricane season. At this early stage, analog years are difficult to determine - perhaps something similar to the 1987 season (7/3/1). Sometimes a firm El Nino year (1953) can still produce an active Atlantic tropical cyclone season but those anomalies are rare. My current thoughts are to lean toward a season with lower than normal activity with an initial forecast of 8/5/1. With below normal SSTs forecast for the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea for the Spring and early Summer, an early start to the 2015 Atlantic season is not very likely. As the season approaches, feel free to add your own numbers in our annual attempt to quantify the numbers for the upcoming season. Rational for your forecast is not required and you can adjust your numbers as often as you wish until this thread closes on June 1st. At the end of the 2015 season we'll revisit our numbers and see how well we did (or didn't).

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for 2015 Ed DunhamAdministrator Thu Jan 01 2015 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jan 02 2015 02:09 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 JoshuaK   Sat Jan 03 2015 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 B.C.Francis   Mon Jan 26 2015 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 MikeCAdministrator   Thu Feb 12 2015 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Feb 19 2015 02:09 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Mar 10 2015 01:37 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Apr 15 2015 12:13 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 M.A.   Sat Mar 14 2015 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 doug   Thu Apr 09 2015 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 JoshuaK   Thu Jan 01 2015 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 Doombot!   Fri Jan 02 2015 12:11 AM

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