Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Re: Outlook for 2015
Tue Mar 10 2015 01:37 AM
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Since 1950 there have only been three years that had an El Nino event last for the entire year: 1953, 1969 and 1987. With an El Nino event about to verify (five straight months) there is a good possibility that 2015 could become the fourth year that this has happened since 1950. 1957 is no longer a viable analog year, but two of the active El Nino years, 1953 and 1969, are looking like possible analog years for this upcoming season. The other two are 1977 and 1991. With the exception of 1953 and 1969, no other year with a moderate El Nino has produced above normal tropical cyclone activity, however, 1958 did have an average number of storms (10/7/5), so about 25% of the time an El Nino season can still produce an active season in the Atlantic basin. The latest SST forecasts (issued 3/2/15) suggest that above normal SSTs will exist in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea for the entire 2015 Atlantic tropical cyclone season - so an early season storm is certainly possible this year - and that would also be true for a late season storm or two.
Current Analog Years
1977 6//5/1
1969 18/12/5
1991 8/4/2
1953 13/6/4
Average of the Analog Years is 11/7/3.
With a nudge from the 'potential' for a slightly busier season, I'll bump up my forecast to 9/6/2.
Remember, if you have already posted your forecast you can change it, if you wish, right up until the thread closes on June 1st.
Cheers,
ED
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