Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

Arlene expected to be short-lived as rapid weakening is forecast over the weekend
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 204 (Nicole) , Major: 247 (Ian) Florida - Any: 204 (Nicole) Major: 247 (Ian)
25.4N 85.5W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 998mb
Sse at 7 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight

Archives 2010s >> 2015 Storm Forum

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2015
      Tue Mar 10 2015 01:37 AM

Since 1950 there have only been three years that had an El Nino event last for the entire year: 1953, 1969 and 1987. With an El Nino event about to verify (five straight months) there is a good possibility that 2015 could become the fourth year that this has happened since 1950. 1957 is no longer a viable analog year, but two of the active El Nino years, 1953 and 1969, are looking like possible analog years for this upcoming season. The other two are 1977 and 1991. With the exception of 1953 and 1969, no other year with a moderate El Nino has produced above normal tropical cyclone activity, however, 1958 did have an average number of storms (10/7/5), so about 25% of the time an El Nino season can still produce an active season in the Atlantic basin. The latest SST forecasts (issued 3/2/15) suggest that above normal SSTs will exist in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea for the entire 2015 Atlantic tropical cyclone season - so an early season storm is certainly possible this year - and that would also be true for a late season storm or two.

Current Analog Years
1977 6//5/1
1969 18/12/5
1991 8/4/2
1953 13/6/4

Average of the Analog Years is 11/7/3.

With a nudge from the 'potential' for a slightly busier season, I'll bump up my forecast to 9/6/2.

Remember, if you have already posted your forecast you can change it, if you wish, right up until the thread closes on June 1st.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator

Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for 2015 Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Mar 10 2015 01:37 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jan 02 2015 02:09 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 JoshuaK   Sat Jan 03 2015 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 B.C.Francis   Mon Jan 26 2015 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 MikeCAdministrator   Thu Feb 12 2015 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Feb 19 2015 02:09 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Mar 10 2015 01:37 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Apr 15 2015 12:13 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 M.A.   Sat Mar 14 2015 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 doug   Thu Apr 09 2015 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 JoshuaK   Thu Jan 01 2015 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2015 Doombot!   Fri Jan 02 2015 12:11 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  Ed Dunham, danielw 

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Thread views: 3672

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center