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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 331 (Nicholas) , Major: 346 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1400 (Michael) Major: 1400 (Michael)
 


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vpbob21
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Loc: Ohio
Strengthening TS Soudelor approaching Saipan
      Sun Aug 02 2015 12:10 AM

At 02/0300Z Tropical Storm Soudelor was about 100 miles east of the island of Saipan in the Northern Marianas with winds of 70 mph moving at 285 degrees at about 17 mph. This one formed several days ago to the north of the Marshall Islands and has been slow to consolidate, but appears to be doing so just in time to cause significant problems for Saipan and Tinian. It looks like the storm will pass over or very close to Saipan around 02/1200Z and will likely be a solid cat 1 typhoon as it passes. Saipan and Tinian are under typhoon warnings and Rota has a tropical storm warning. It looks like Guam is largely going to miss this one except for some of the outer rainbands.

After Soudelor clears the Marianas it should move at a steady clip at about 290-295 degrees for about the next five days. After that the models become widely divergent with the CMC turning it north toward Japan, the ECMWF bringing it to the coast of China and then recurving it and the farther south GFS taking it across Taiwan and into southeast China. Stay tuned.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Strengthening TS Soudelor approaching Saipan vpbob21 Sun Aug 02 2015 12:10 AM
. * * Re: Strengthening TS Soudelor approaching Saipan vpbob21   Sat Aug 08 2015 12:19 AM
. * * Re: Strengthening TS Soudelor approaching Saipan vpbob21   Tue Aug 04 2015 12:38 AM

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