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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
First Atlantic System of the Season?
      Fri Jul 05 2002 11:50 AM

Well it seems like things are finally kicking off! The system to the NNE of Bermuda has become increasingly better organised on satellite imagery today, and i think it may be declared our first Tropical Cyclone of the season at some point today. Possibly by the 5.30pm TWO. The convection has consolidated over the apparent LLCC, with low level clouds evident to the northeast and the deepest convective activity located in the remaining 3 quadrants. I think it is too early to predict just what might happen to this system, but judging from the appearance on imagery already, i would guess it will be a strong TD, and may reach a weak TS within 24 to 36 hours. Maximum winds (now i amgoing out on a limb!) will not exceed 45 mph with this system before it weakens or gets absorbed.

As for the area to the SE of the NC coast, well it is poorly organised and i dont see much happening with it.

Another area of interest is that which has developed to the south of the Florida Panhandle. Poorly organised at the moment, but worth watching.

Well i will no doubt be posting again soon as this Bermuda System develops!

Rich B

StormWarn2000 IWN

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Will the Trough Spin? CFHCAdministrator Fri Jul 05 2002 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Will the Trough Spin? Anonymous   Fri Jul 05 2002 11:31 AM
. * * First Atlantic System of the Season? Rich B   Fri Jul 05 2002 11:50 AM
. * * 93L (90L?) Anonymous (HF)   Fri Jul 05 2002 01:26 PM
. * * Re: 93L (90L?) Rich B   Fri Jul 05 2002 01:54 PM
. * * The first tropical storm? Anonymous   Fri Jul 05 2002 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Will the Trough Spin? Anonymous   Fri Jul 05 2002 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Will the Trough Spin? Anonymous   Fri Jul 05 2002 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Will the Trough Spin? Steve 777   Thu Jul 04 2002 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Will the Trough Spin? GaryC   Wed Jul 03 2002 10:55 AM
. * * nope Anonymous (HF)   Thu Jul 04 2002 12:49 AM
. * * Re: nope Anonymous   Thu Jul 04 2002 11:23 AM
. * * Re: nope Frank P   Thu Jul 04 2002 07:52 PM
. * * uhh.. yep? Anonymous (HF)   Fri Jul 05 2002 12:04 AM
. * * September Rad   Thu Jul 04 2002 09:28 AM

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