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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 337 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)
 


General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
ExTrop Patricia Off To Great Lakes
      Fri Oct 16 2015 12:17 PM

Image below taken Fri Morning Oct 16, 2015


A broad area of increasingly favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development is taking hold in the southwestern Atlantic and extreme far eastern Pacific, over and either side of an area extending from the Yucatan to Central America.

As of 10 AM Oct 16, this region featured an expanding area of scattered and mostly unorganized showers and thunderstorms, with several tropical waves, two tracked wave pouches (51L, 52E), one low center, and a stationary frontal boundary to their northeast. In the mid-levels, troughing is co-located with the wave in the western Caribbean. In the upper-levels, broad anti-cyclonic flow aloft is centered over the northwestern Caribbean.

For over a week, models have been honing in on this general area for development, and although the exact timing of development has been pushed further out with successive runs, the conditions foreseen by these runs are now mostly starting to appear, and it looks increasingly possible that at least one or two tropical and/or hybrid cyclones will form somewhere between the far eastern Pacific to the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, within the next seven days.

None of these features are yet Invest tagged, but if and when they do, this thread will be updated with the Invest tag numbers. It is worth noting that there is an above normal chance for a cross-over from the far east Pac into the western Atlantic, perhaps around the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and so should a far eastern Pacific disturbance form that has robust model support for doing so, it will be tagged and followed in this thread given a then likelihood of being re-tagged or re-numbered.

The next name on the list in the Atlantic is Kate.

Title edited to reflect changes of status

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Oct 27 2015 05:17 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* ExTrop Patricia Off To Great Lakes cieldumortModerator Fri Oct 16 2015 12:17 PM
. * * Re: ExTrop Patricia Off To Great Lakes cieldumortModerator   Tue Oct 27 2015 05:36 AM
. * * Re: ExTrop Patricia Off To Great Lakes cieldumortModerator   Tue Oct 27 2015 05:31 AM
. * * Re: Post-Trop Patricia in Louisiana cieldumortModerator   Tue Oct 27 2015 05:04 AM
. * * Re: Post-Trop Patricia in Louisiana cieldumortModerator   Mon Oct 26 2015 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Patricia's Merger Low in GOM cieldumortModerator   Sun Oct 25 2015 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Patricia May Impact Texas cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 23 2015 05:56 PM
. * * Re: Patricia May Impact Texas cieldumortModerator   Wed Oct 28 2015 03:28 AM
. * * Re: Patricia May Impact Texas cieldumortModerator   Wed Oct 28 2015 05:28 AM
. * * Record-Setting Patricia cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 23 2015 01:39 AM
. * * Re: Record-Setting Patricia cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 23 2015 04:44 AM
. * * Eye wall diameter? Doombot!   Fri Oct 23 2015 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Eye wall diameter? cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 23 2015 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Eye wall diameter? Random Chaos   Fri Oct 23 2015 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Record-Setting Patricia Hawkeyewx   Fri Oct 23 2015 03:26 AM
. * * Re: Patricia May Impact Texas cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 23 2015 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Patricia May Impact Texas cieldumortModerator   Thu Oct 22 2015 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Ctrl Am. Lows: Trof, 92L & Patricia May Impact Texas cieldumortModerator   Thu Oct 22 2015 04:55 AM
. * * Re: Remains of Patricia May Impact Texas Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Oct 22 2015 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Remains of Patricia May Impact Texas cieldumortModerator   Thu Oct 22 2015 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Ctrl Am. Lows: Trof, 92L & Patricia May Impact Texas cieldumortModerator   Thu Oct 22 2015 03:51 AM
. * * Re: Ctrl Am. Lows: Trof, 92L & Patricia May Impact Texas cieldumortModerator   Thu Oct 22 2015 03:39 AM
. * * Re: Ctrl Am. Lows: Trof, 92L & Patricia May Impact Texas cieldumortModerator   Thu Oct 22 2015 03:27 AM
. * * Re: Developing Carib/Gulf Low cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 16 2015 02:47 PM

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