for some reason nrl has two tracks for the same system. there have been two dvorak satelite intensity estimates on it, at 0545z this morning it got 'too weak', then at 1145z it came up at 1.0. mentally organized person that i am, ive already forgotten where to find the intensity data for a 1.0, but it's weak depression if i'm not mistaken. anyhow this system is already north of bermuda, and supposed to fuse into the larger low over the canadian maritimes. the nhc is at least mentioning it in TWOs but i can remember a similar system in august 2000 that they never bothered to classify, despite a gale force ship report. so this may end up being arthur, and it may not.
other items of interest.. tpc has two other systems mentioned in the TWO.. one is even further northeast than 93L(?) but still throwing convection and pretty well organized, but almost surely not tropical in nature. it will soon become one with the low over the maritimes. the other system is a low tagged at 1014mb in the convection off the outer banks. models have it moving nne toward the same low poised to eat the previously mentioned systems.. tpc is following the avn forecast for it. right now it is poorly organized, but as with the other two, there is plenty of baroclinic kick and warm water underneath.. so it may become a short lived tropical system that harries off the coast over the weekend.
one last item of mention.. the next upper system retrograding into the gulf is forecast with a surface trough. there is consistent model support for this feature, but no model is doing much with it. bastardi mentioned this again and went on to say that the upper system will vent a future eastpac system well to the south. so, expecting a cristina on the pacific side, and probably nothing here in the atlantic, except whatever may flare off the northeast coast as it jets out.
one other mention, bastardi talked about the cooling off the south american coast. el nino is partway there but struggling.
done for now, i submit another poll:
will check back later.
HanKFranK 3.07 aiken, SC 1713z05july
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