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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
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17.8N 78.6W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 994mb
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Nw at 13 mph
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes
      Tue May 14 2002 11:11 PM

A little udpate to my 13/8/3 post. We were discussing that over on the storm forum. I gotta get used to the news and the forum and where the action is going to be.

As I process more information, I think there are five main focus points for possible landfalls this year:

1) Florida - South Florida appears to be a target from the E, ESE and SE. The panhandle appears to be a target from the SW and SE. Depending on oscilations of the Bermuda Ridge, the flow should be at FL from the SE, and ridge should act as a block when its western edge is across FL, as a steering mechanism into the panhandle if when it's periphery is not beyond 85-88 degrees west.

2) Caribbean - What can you say? With so much area, at least one of the islands is bound to take a pounding.

3) US East Coast - whenever we switch to troughy periods, they're always in the game.

4) AL/MS Coast - As the Bermuda Ridge ebbs back easterly, as it will at times in late August through September, someone needs to paint a bullseye on this 160+/- mile stretch of coast.

5) Western LA/Upper Texas Coasts- If the western ridge pattern sets up as Bastardi has predicted - off of the Baja, then the Northerly and Northwesterly flow should be far enough inland to allow for a path of weakness between Lafayette and Galveston. Any mid-season storms (July, August, September) that make their way into the Gulf, have as good of a shot to hit here as anywhere. This, of course, assumes a block across FL and formation in the BoC and/or southern Gulf.

But I'm not ready to make my official landfall predictions yet. That will come on 6/1 or 6/2.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes CFHCAdministrator Tue May 14 2002 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes kyaked@msn.com   Sun Jul 14 2002 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes Rad   Fri May 17 2002 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes Jax Chris   Wed May 15 2002 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes GaryC   Wed May 15 2002 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes Colleen A.   Wed May 15 2002 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes Peanuts   Tue May 14 2002 10:22 PM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes Steve   Tue May 14 2002 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes Steve   Tue May 14 2002 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes Joe   Tue May 14 2002 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes ShawnS   Tue May 14 2002 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes Bruce   Tue May 14 2002 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes Kimmie   Tue May 14 2002 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes Colleen A.   Tue May 14 2002 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes Kimmieatwork   Wed May 15 2002 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes Colleen A.   Wed May 15 2002 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes CocoaBeach David   Tue May 14 2002 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes John C   Tue May 14 2002 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes Colleen A.   Tue May 14 2002 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes jth   Tue May 14 2002 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes Colleen A.   Tue May 14 2002 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, and Tornadoes Steve   Tue May 14 2002 11:39 AM

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