I can't help but feel like the global models are developing 97L a bit early, and then intensifying the cyclone too fast in the Caribbean. There has been much discussion on the eventual track of 97L -- but I caution everyone to not assume that the forecast of a major hurricane in the Caribbean Sea is in the bag. See the latest SHIPS/LGEM guidance below, indicating that the 72-96 hr time frame may be quite hostile. This particular model has been trending in that direction for a few runs now.
97L is almost completely void of convection tonight and with the rapid westward movement, organization will be slow to occur. If 97L does not setup a good "foundation" over the next 48 hours, it may enter the Caribbean Sea as a critically injured wave.
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