18z gfs shoots then hurricane between Cuba and Haiti Monday morning, then moves north through the Central Bahamas as a Major Tuesday morning, continues north, it is just east of North Carolina on Friday the 7th, then hooks over Manhattan on Oct 8th, extratropical system, but still very powerful.
Ensemble spread isn't as large as yesterday but still runs from just west of Florida to well east of Florida in the longer range.
18z hwrf gets it to cat 4, goes over Haiti in the Tiburon peninsula Sunday morning and winds up in the Windward passage by Monday morning heading north.
18z gfdl gets it southwest of Jamaica by Sunday and hits cat 5.
Again, before the system gets developed still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast beyond 4 days or so.
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