The theme for the 0z Models run today: Shift West, much closer to US..
GFS: Tuesday orning, barely offshore the west tip of Haiti's Tiburon peninsula, eyewall and convection to the east goes over Haiti. Then clips Eastern Cuba. Then rides up through most of the Bahamas (east of Abaco) Wed-Thursday Saturday morning begins to affect Noarth Carolina, western eyewall passes over Morehead City, and rides along outer banks to the northeast, no complete landfall however. Landfall Cape Cod, then moves northwest over Boston, Monday October 17th.
Euro similar to GFS but Slower, Bahamas Wed-Thursday 100 miles east of Cape Canaveral Friday Slowly moves to the east over the weekend then back southeast on Tuesday October 11th. Very very slow. Note: The Euro Ensemble mean (EPS) does have a landfall or Cape Canaveral clip on the space coast Friday. If this would occur the western eyewall would impact Brevard and Volusia and hurricane and tropical storm force winds felt further inland.
HWRF moves the storm east of the main line of Bahama islands. GFDL ends with it nearing North Carolina.
All in all, still in the same boat, threat to Florida cannot be ruled out (if anything its more uncertain than yesterday), odds favor it stay east of US, but a very shaky odds. Not a good run for the Bahamas.
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