Given the 11am NHC day 4/5 cone and expanding 34kt wind radii (out 200 miles west of the center), the likelihood of experiencing tropical storm force winds along the east central Florida coast is increasing. TS Julia's track just inland up the Florida east coast in September produced an hour or so of sustained 40-50 mph winds in Daytona Beach Shores one block from the Atlantic Ocean. If latest official forecast pans out with Matthew, could see a longer (12hr?) period of similar wind speeds, with gusts in the 60 mph range. If future updates to Matthew's projected NNW track from 26-30N latitude shift west of 77.5W longitude, the potential for a closer brush from the Cape northward by the slow-moving hurricane parallel to the coast just offshore considerably raises concern. As previously posted, I think the big story for Florida's east coast will be serious coastal erosion from a strong/prolonged onshore fetch associated with a strong slow moving hurricane.
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