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Hurricane Matthew Approaching E. Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Increases
      Mon Oct 03 2016 04:46 PM

11PM EDT 4 October 2016 Update
Hurricane Warnings are now up from Dade/Broward line (Golden Beach) to Sebasitan Inlet (Indian River/Brevard Line) and Lake Okeechobee. Hurricane watches extend north to the Flagler/Volusia county lines. Track has shifted a bit west, now <20 miles offshore of Volusia/Cape Canaveral, which would bring the eywall onshore there. Matthew is forecast to still be a category 4 hurricane when it is near the Florida coastline. The track may shift again later.

Although the storm did weaken a bit crossing over cuba, it is still a category 4 hurricane.

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take
another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United States to clarify.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.




5PM EDT 4 October 2016 Update
Hurricane watches are extended south to the Miami/Dade county line extend north to the Volusia/Brevard county line. It's likely the watches will be extended northward later tonight and tomorrow. The track has shifted west and will likely have a historic impact on the east coast of Florida.

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. See http://floridadisaster.org for Florida Emergency information.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this far in advance. For example, only small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United States to clarify.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.

2PM EDT 4 October 2016 Update
Matthew continues as an all-time historic, very dangerous and deadly Atlantic hurricane.

After being somewhat disrupted by the speed bump of western Hispaniola, the last recon pass found pressures lowering again. Of note, after last night's long-anticipated Eyewall Replacement Cycle, the hurricane force windfield has greatly expanded. Hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

Here are some more of the phenomenal stats on Matthew (h/t Philip Klotzbach)

Hurricane Matthew has been at Cat. 4-5 intensity for the longest streak during October for an Atlantic hurricane on record.

Matthew is 4th place for ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) generated within the entire Caribbean (<=20°N, 90-60°W) - behind only Cuba (1932), Ivan (2004) & Mitch (1998)

-Ciel


11AM EDT 4 October 2016 Update
Hurricane watch from Deerfield Beach to Brevard/Volusia county line

Tropical Storm Watch from Deerfield Beach south to Seven Mile Bridge including Lake Okeechobee

Tropical Storm Nicole Forms...

More to come later.

6AM EDT 4 October 2016 Update
Hurricane Matthew is nearing the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti, on the extreme western tip of Cuba, as a strong Category 4 hurricane, bringing massive flooding rains and extreme winds to the island. The last several recon passes found Matthew producing sustained Cat 5 winds at elevations only a few hundred feet above the surface, with even stronger gusts, and the terrain is elevated in this area.



Eastern Cuba and the majority of the Bahamas will be dealing with the system Through Friday.

Beyond this the official track takes the storm within 50 miles of the east Florida coastline (particularly near Central Florida) and riding near or at the coast all the way through North Carolina. Florida is weil within the cone and a small shift west would bring even stronger conditions, conversely more east would bring less, however as large as intense Matthew is, strong impacts will be felt, the track is NOT just a point, especially with a major hurricane. Hurricane watches are likely later today for parts of Florida;. On this track, Florida will see impacts Thursday and Friday, NC toward the weekend.

11PM EDT 3 October 2016 Update

Hurricane Matthew regained a bit of strength tonight with the lowest pressure to date at 934mb and windspeed of 145mph. When Matthew achieved category 5 hurricane status earlier it had the assistance of the trade winds to boost the windspeed which it does not have now. Parts of Haiti could received up to 30 inches of rainfall as the system moves just west or over the tip of the Tiburon peninsula in Haiti.

Beyond that it is forecast to move over the eastern tip of Cuba. This is likely to weaken the system some, but once back in the open water it can restrengthen. It is forecast to go over most of the Bahamas and get within 60 miles of the Florida coastline. It is likely hurricane and or tropical storm watches will be needed for the east coast of Florida tomorrow.

Florida's approach would be Thursday afternoon (south Florida) into Friday. (Central/N Florida).



8PM EDT 3 October 2016 Update

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island, and a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches may be issued for the Florida east coast late tonight or tomorrow.

Let us know about how things are in your area related to Matthew in this thread.

Original Update

From official Discussion:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.

2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued
sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. east coast. At a minimum, very dangerous
beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east
coast later this week and weekend.

Based on the official track the closest point to Florida is 100 miles off the coast, with adjustments possible. Because of this hurricane watches are likely for the east coast of Florida tonight or tomorrow.

More speculation on Matthew can be found in the Matthew Lounge.


Florida Emergency Management.
Florida Evacuation Zone Maps
Florida County Emergency Management websites
Guantanamo Bay Radar - Recording

{{StormLinks|Matthew|14|14|2016|14|Matthew}}

Caribbean Radar Mosaic Recording.

{{JamaicaLinks}}

{{BahamasMedia}}

{{StormCarib}}

{{EastFloridaRadar}}

{{MidAtlanticRadar}}

{{SouthFloridaMedia}}

{{EastCentralFloridaMedia}}

{{JaxMedia}}

{{NCCoastMedia}}

{{FloridaPowerOutage}}


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* Hurricane Matthew Approaching E. Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Increases MikeCAdministrator Mon Oct 03 2016 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching E. Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Increases Random Chaos   Wed Oct 05 2016 07:09 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching E. Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Increases StormHound   Wed Oct 05 2016 06:32 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching E. Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Increases SpeedwayCocoa   Wed Oct 05 2016 06:18 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching E. Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Increases cieldumort   Wed Oct 05 2016 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 04 2016 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Hawkeyewx   Tue Oct 04 2016 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Colleen A.   Tue Oct 04 2016 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat cieldumort   Tue Oct 04 2016 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Anton Ross   Tue Oct 04 2016 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 04 2016 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Bloodstar   Tue Oct 04 2016 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 04 2016 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Kraig   Tue Oct 04 2016 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat gsand   Tue Oct 04 2016 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Steve H1   Tue Oct 04 2016 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Colleen A.   Tue Oct 04 2016 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 04 2016 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat gsand   Tue Oct 04 2016 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 04 2016 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 04 2016 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat vineyardsaker   Tue Oct 04 2016 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat M.A.   Tue Oct 04 2016 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat cieldumort   Tue Oct 04 2016 08:12 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 04 2016 07:59 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 04 2016 06:59 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat cieldumort   Tue Oct 04 2016 04:35 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat SpeedwayCocoa   Tue Oct 04 2016 12:59 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Steve H1   Tue Oct 04 2016 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat IsoFlame   Mon Oct 03 2016 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 03 2016 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Lamar-Plant City   Mon Oct 03 2016 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat Abaco Weather   Mon Oct 03 2016 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 03 2016 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 03 2016 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 03 2016 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Approaching Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida Threat MichaelA   Mon Oct 03 2016 05:24 PM

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