cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: 93L Near the Yucatan
Sun Jun 18 2017 12:34 PM
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There has been some buzz within the social mediarologist sphere that the cyclonic convective complex which developed on the eastern side of the parent gyre is a tropical cyclone. This is probably not the case. Surface winds around the MCS are generally blowing as is typical for the area - from SE to NW, or in spots, towards the 'X" on the map below - and surface pressures near the MCS are presently rising.
For two days a tropical wave has been interacting with the gyre, and this has resulted in numerous rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms, some quite vigorous, to the right of 93L's center. Overnight last night the most organized complex yet developed, and *could* have had a low-level circulation associated with it, but so far, this is unclear at best.
It is worth noting that of the models that create a primary surface low to the northeast to north of 93L's present 'center,' it appears that this is at least partially responsible for how they do it (by tapping into the additional vorticity and instability created by the introduction of this unrelated tropical wave), and so the area does bear close watching. Even though 93L's center is most likely the weak LLC near the border of Belize & Mexico, this center could 'jump' into one of these mid-level thunderstorm convective complexes, under the right circumstances.
Recon is scheduled to be flying in later today, and that data should help greatly in ascertaining the viability of this thunderstorm complex, as well as with the next round of model initialization.
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