cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: THREE (93L) Lounge
Tue Jun 20 2017 06:08 AM
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A tough one for forecasters to nail down, given its genesis as a product of a very broad monsoon gyre .. interacting with a tropical wave ... interacting with a diving upper level low ..
The 4AM NHC discussion brings up the possibility of THREE never becoming a tropical cyclone, but instead getting designated subtropical later today. Especially considering its ongoing interaction with the upper-level low to its west - imparting moderate to high shear and injecting dry air - this makes a great deal of sense.
On the other hand, the very last few frames from night vision IR suggest an effort by the cyclone may now be underway to align better with the deeper convection, convection which has been getting more robust since late yesterday. In this regard, it is behaving more like a sheared tropical cyclone. I personally lean more to this scenario, although not by a lot.
In THREE's case, the distinction between subtropical and tropical is more than academic. While the greatest threat will be from heavy, tropical precipitation (flooding) either way, a better (or worse) aligned system could have significant track implications, in addition to the potential for the cyclone to result in an area of more concentrated, potentially heavier wind damage (TC), as opposed to a more widespread, but possibly less severe wind risk (STC).
NHC will probably have a much better handle on its ultimate designation (Tropical or Subtrop) by this evening, but either way 'Cindy' appears to be a very safe bet.
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