cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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East Atlantic Tropical Wave
Sat Jul 08 2017 11:11 PM
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A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave embedded within the Monsoon Trof, along with several linked small minimums of surface pressure (low pressure centers), has been looking interesting. In addition, a modest thunderstorm complex associated with this region of disturbed weather rolled off western Africa late last night, and is now showing signs of enhanced vorticity.
This region is not yet Invest tagged, and as of the 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 TWO, NHC had not yet made mention of it - even in the extended 5 Day. However, models in aggregate have been lukewarm on developing either a strong wave or tropical cyclone from this soup over the next seven days, with the prized GFS the most consistent, and bullish.
Below: GFS Ensemble Members 120 Hours out from 18z July 8, 2017 Initialization
In this run, most members are clustered around the development of a closed surface low east of the southern Lesser Antilles, with minimum barometric pressures ranging between 999mb and 1010mb at that point in time. ***LOUNGE CAVEATS APPLY***
Ensemble map credit and thanks to Tropical Tidbits/Levi Cowan
This feature has not yet developed, and may in fact not do so at all. However, if and once a more distinct system forms we will update the title and thread with any relevant Invest tag, storm number, name, etc.
This is where to put mid to long range thoughts on this feature's potential for development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are appropriate here.
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