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#95L in the Tropical Atlantic with now 70% NHC odds of becoming a Tropical Cyclone. Modeling more consistently aggressive over past 24 hours.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)
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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4562
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: East Atlantic Tropical Wave
      Sun Jul 09 2017 09:14 PM

Evening model run summary for the wave:

18z GFS
Moves the system fairly steadily through the Atlantic, starts to develop it on July 14th. Saturday morning, hurricane over the central leewards, Clips the eastern part of the Dominican republic on Monday July 17th, Moves through the majority of the Bahamas as a hurricane on Tues/Wed 18/19th. landfall near Charleston (major hurricane) on Saturday July 22nd. Rides the coast up through the outer banks back over water Sunday morning July 23rd. Snd Landfall in Long Island, NY on the afternoon of the 23rd.

The 12z Euro develops it closer to the islands but slams it into South America and loses it.

GFS Parallel never really develops it.

CMC never really develops it.

In short GFS is showing the most from it, but the euro is joining in with development near the islands, but not with keeping it alive longer than that.

With only the GFS showing real development, (although the Euro hints it could happen) there is lots of time to watch this one. That said the NHC has given the area a 20% chance for development over the next 5 days. Those in the leeward islands will want to watch closely.





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Subject Posted by Posted on
* East Atlantic Tropical Wave cieldumort Sun Jul 09 2017 09:14 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Tropical Wave MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 09 2017 09:14 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Tropical Wave MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 09 2017 11:50 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Tropical Wave MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 10 2017 07:28 AM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Tropical Wave MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 10 2017 02:23 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Tropical Wave MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 10 2017 07:12 PM
. * * Re: East Atlantic Tropical Wave MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 11 2017 07:26 AM

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