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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.**
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)
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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4549
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 95L Lounge
      Tue Jul 18 2017 03:56 AM

Model runs for don are mixed, Don is a very small storm, and thus could change in intensity rapidly. In fact HWRF and HMON models show it reaching hurricane intensity before the Windwards, however other models do not . The globals aren't handing it well right now.

But for the 0z models, GFS Parallel is showing it holding together and strengthening passing over the windward islands late Tuesday night. then falling apart before reaching Nicaragua.

GFS Operational isn't getting a good grasp of it (too small).

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* TS DON Lounge cieldumort Tue Jul 18 2017 03:56 AM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Jul 17 2017 05:28 PM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 18 2017 03:56 AM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 18 2017 10:57 AM

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