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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4560
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 95L Lounge
      Mon Jul 17 2017 11:56 PM

Model runs for don are mixed, Don is a very small storm, and thus could change in intensity rapidly. In fact HWRF and HMON models show it reaching hurricane intensity before the Windwards, however other models do not . The globals aren't handing it well right now.

But for the 0z models, GFS Parallel is showing it holding together and strengthening passing over the windward islands late Tuesday night. then falling apart before reaching Nicaragua.

GFS Operational isn't getting a good grasp of it (too small).

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* TS DON Lounge cieldumort Mon Jul 17 2017 11:56 PM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Jul 17 2017 01:28 PM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 17 2017 11:56 PM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 18 2017 06:57 AM

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