Emily to Cross Florida Today and Tonight

7AM EDT Update 31 July 2017
During the past few hours deep convection has persisted and become a little better organized over the well-defined, formerly non-tropical low pressure center being tracked as Invest 98L, and the system is now a Tropical Depression, the sixth tropical cyclone of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Although not presently forecast to become stronger than a TD (given the shear and nearby dry air), smaller systems can have surprisingly large and unexpected changes in intensity, up or down, and a modest Tropical Storm into landfall is not out of the question. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds, regardless.
-Ciel

Tropical Storm Warnings up from Anclote River (just south of New Port Richie) to Bonita Beach Florida

2PM EDT Update 30 July 2017
The area in the northeast Gulf is now being tracked as Invest 98L, chances for development are up to 30% in the next 5 days and 20% in the next 48 hours. It continues to bring rain to Central and Northern Florida.

Original Update

A stalled out frontal system over the northeast gulf of Mexico has formed a surface low south-southwest of Panama City, FL and bringing rain to parts of Central and Northern Florida. Although the system isn't likely to develop into anything tropical in the near term, the rainfall and developing low will likely make for a nasty day or two in those areas. Because of the close proximity, We'll be watching the rather vigorous surface low to see if anything comes of it after Florida, right now there's a 10% chance this low develops within the next 48 hours and 20% over the next few days.

Parts of the area in Florida may have some rough weather associated with the front and low, but not much more than a typical afternoon storm (just longer duration)

Additionally the area in the central Atlantic has a 20% for development.

The gulf system has not been tagged as an invest yet.

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Radar Recording for 98L approach

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Jul 31 2017 04:57 PM)

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