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Archives 2010s >> 2017 Forecast Lounge
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berrywr
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: EMILY Lounge
      Mon Jul 31 2017 03:20 PM

There are no other scenarios except one which Emily survives; Emily is directly under the upper level trough axis and any attempt to remain west of the base of the trough or axis would induce a northerly shear and should it rush on out ahead of the trough, a SW shear will be induced which later in the forecast period that's exactly what happens as the long wave trough over the eastern US fills and the upper ridge out west and the upper ridge over the Atlantic temporarily rebuild heights over the SE USA before the next major shortwave moves in and lower heights and re-deepens the aformentioned trough. The upper players are not in place for a COL scenario. The upper air at this time is progressive and anomalously deep for this time of year. Currently as of 3 pm ET, Emily is located on radar between Wimauma to its west, Keysville to its north, Bradley Junction to its NE, Duette to its south. There is some precipitation associated with the system but very light at this time and there is no precipiation at its center. Emily is moving east at about 10 mph but appears to have slowed a bit over the past hour. More precipitation is to the north of Emily but it is associated with a stationary front. Short term NAM has this system continuing to move east and then northeast out to sea where our eastern US longwave trough will escort Emily out to sea. Emily is not the smallest cyclone I've seen, but she's spinning along nicely. That said, Emily is elongated from WSW to ENE on radar and the streamline analysis out of NWSFO MLB confirms this as well. You can make a case for Emily interacting with the stationary front nearby given that too would be an area of lowest surface pressures. VAD winds out of TBW are no greater than 15 knots from the north at this time. Y'all have a nice day!

Edited by berrywr (Mon Jul 31 2017 03:38 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* EMILY Lounge cieldumort Mon Jul 31 2017 03:20 PM
. * * Re: EMILY Lounge berrywr   Mon Jul 31 2017 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Gulf of Mex 98L Lounge Prospero   Mon Jul 31 2017 07:00 AM
. * * Re: Gulf of Mex 98L Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Jul 31 2017 09:23 AM
. * * Re: Gulf of Mex 98L Lounge Prospero   Mon Jul 31 2017 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Gulf of Mex 98L Lounge Colleen A.   Mon Jul 31 2017 11:59 AM

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