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Re: Invest 99L Lounge
      Fri Aug 04 2017 12:08 AM

0z gfs run rolling in so far it looks like it will miss the Caribbean to the north on this run, however Euro will still likely take it into the Caribbean. Closest approach for the Caribbean is Thursday night into Friday. At this far into the run (+186 hour) it's slightly south of the prior 18z run. Ridging to the north is fairly strong also.

After this, it gets very close to the Turks and Caicos islands in the Bahamas, enough to be a problem there. Into the central Bahamas late August 12th into the 13th. Bermuda high is strong, major hurricane over Nassau on the 13th.

Late evening on the 13th, its very close to Florida, very close or just over Cape Canaveral (925mb major hurricane) but stays just offshore (very similar to Matthew), eventually landfalls near Savannah/Hilton Head on Aug 15th, a bit weaker, then rides inland through North Carolina.

earlier runs of the CMC misses the islands and takes it out to sea, the UKMET rides it through the northern Caribbean islands (weak)

The newer 0z run of the CMC is weaker, but much further west.

Splitting the difference takes it very close to the northern Caribbean islands, maybe skimming Hispaniola after missing Puerto Rico barely to the north.

HMON/HWRF develop it into a hurricane in about 5 days.

In short still too soon to tell impacts, about a 50/50 split for Caribbean impact, and much less for US/Bahamas impact, but more than earlier. A slight shift to the west. The most alarming thing about the GFS is the 600dm ridge that holds for several days, which would likely force the storm west and raises the chances of land impacts a great deal (taken in isolation, if the trend holds, even more so)

99L needs to be watched VERY closely over the next week and a half.




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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* HUR. GERT Lounge cieldumortModerator Fri Aug 04 2017 12:08 AM
. * * Re: HUR. GERT Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Aug 16 2017 10:56 AM
. * * Re: TD EIGHT Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Aug 13 2017 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Aug 10 2017 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge JoshuaK   Fri Aug 11 2017 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 04 2017 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 04 2017 06:15 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge M.A.   Fri Aug 04 2017 07:19 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 04 2017 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 04 2017 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 04 2017 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 04 2017 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 05 2017 08:26 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 05 2017 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 05 2017 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 06 2017 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Aug 07 2017 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge JMII   Mon Aug 07 2017 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 07 2017 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 07 2017 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 08 2017 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 09 2017 06:18 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 09 2017 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 10 2017 05:26 AM
. * * Re: Significant E Atl Wave (99L) MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 03 2017 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Significant E Atl Wave (99L) MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 03 2017 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Significant E Atl Wave (99L) MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 03 2017 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Significant E Atl Wave (99L) M.A.   Thu Aug 03 2017 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Significant E Atl Wave (99L) MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 03 2017 07:41 AM

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