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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 273 (Idalia) , Major: 273 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 273 (Idalia) Major: 273 (Idalia)
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Archives 2010s >> 2017 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Invest 99L Lounge
      Thu Aug 10 2017 04:16 PM

When the sun set on 99L last night, Wednesday Aug 9, a tight low level circulation was evident, and for several hours deep convection fired in association with it. But as the night (and shear) wore on, most convection became displaced from the incipient low level center, and by the time an ASCAT pass made it over, the fledgling disturbance had degenerated back into a sharp wave.

Model support has fallen apart on 99L within the past day, but it has been and remains a tenacious wave. Just this morning it already appears to be trying to consolidate a low level circulation again, with a little convection attempting to hold.

As models have mostly shut off the entire basin for the next ten days to two weeks, which given the higher sea level pressures is somewhat understandable but may very well be overdone, this could be producing a bias to miss the smaller and less pronounced features that only need 'a break' to develop. 99L would certainly qualify.

Should 99L not develop, or develop late, it might pose more of a threat to the US later on, as it would be less likely to recurve sooner.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* HUR. GERT Lounge cieldumort Thu Aug 10 2017 04:16 PM
. * * Re: HUR. GERT Lounge cieldumort   Wed Aug 16 2017 02:56 PM
. * * Re: TD EIGHT Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 13 2017 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge cieldumort   Thu Aug 10 2017 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge JoshuaK   Fri Aug 11 2017 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 04 2017 04:08 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 04 2017 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge M.A.   Fri Aug 04 2017 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 04 2017 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 04 2017 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 04 2017 06:42 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 05 2017 01:01 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 05 2017 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 05 2017 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 05 2017 06:21 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 06 2017 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Aug 07 2017 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge JMII   Mon Aug 07 2017 03:00 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 07 2017 03:14 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 07 2017 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 08 2017 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 09 2017 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 09 2017 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 10 2017 09:26 AM
. * * Re: Significant E Atl Wave (99L) MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 03 2017 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Significant E Atl Wave (99L) MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 03 2017 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Significant E Atl Wave (99L) MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 03 2017 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Significant E Atl Wave (99L) M.A.   Thu Aug 03 2017 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Significant E Atl Wave (99L) MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 03 2017 11:41 AM

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