cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: E Atlantic Wave 91L Lounge
Mon Aug 14 2017 11:44 AM
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Much confusion with what and where is 91L this morning. Forecasting this system is going to be a problem unless and until (more likely until) there is really something we can hang our hats on. And it also remains very possible that the most interesting parts of the broad area of low pressure that the original 91L wave is starting to merge with ends up being tracked as two distinct disturbances. (91L and 92L, for example).
NHC has shifted their initialization of 91L to the west this morning, now closer to the center of the low pressure trof, and less so the strong wave that just rolled off Africa, and which has not yet merged all that much with the trof. This will change subsequent model runs, probably not by a lot - but perhaps noticeably - from prior runs.
As of 7:45AM EDT, the '91L' wave axis was located near 24W from 05N to 21N, with low pressure centered along the axis near 13N 24W.
However, as of the 10:37AM EDT NHC graphic update, '91L' was positioned at roughly 12N 30W.
And at 10:45AM EDT, NRL had 91L centered at 12.5N 33.8W, and by the next NHC graphical update, it could be this that is being tracked --- and this would be a very substantial repositioning of this Invest. Or, as noted above, we could have two separate Invests to track by this evening.
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