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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 20 (Milton) , Major: 20 (Milton) Florida - Any: 20 (Milton) Major: 20 (Milton)
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Archives 2010s >> 2017 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2484
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: HARVEY Lounge
      Sun Aug 20 2017 12:12 PM

WSI Calibrated ECMWF EPS now showing a greater than 90% chance that Harvey regenerates.

While the GFS runs should not yet be fully discounted, it is my personal opinion that the new GFS (since the July 19 upgrade) has not performed as admirably with Atlantic tropical cyclones as might be desired, and even in the face of a dramatic convective resurgence this morning, the latest runs (20/0z, 20/06z and now the 20/12z) still do mostly nothing with now x-Harvey... maybe a TD crossing Belize, or forming in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, at best. These runs now run entirely counter to the Euro, and defy the eyes.

Now awaiting the restarting of the TC-specific models HWRF & HMON. Run, runs, run.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* HURRICANE HARVEY Lounge cieldumort Sun Aug 20 2017 12:12 PM
. * * Re: HUR HARVEY Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 27 2017 10:22 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge cieldumort   Tue Aug 22 2017 09:30 AM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge Prospero   Tue Aug 22 2017 07:29 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 22 2017 11:48 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 23 2017 12:21 AM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 23 2017 08:05 AM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 23 2017 12:23 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 23 2017 03:09 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 23 2017 05:57 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 23 2017 07:00 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 23 2017 11:35 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 24 2017 08:07 AM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge JMII   Thu Aug 24 2017 01:12 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge Psyber   Thu Aug 24 2017 01:22 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 24 2017 03:03 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge Prospero   Thu Aug 24 2017 09:06 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2017 07:30 AM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge JMII   Fri Aug 25 2017 10:25 AM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge Colleen A.   Fri Aug 25 2017 05:42 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge txwxlearner   Fri Aug 25 2017 09:05 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge kspkap   Fri Aug 25 2017 07:43 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge Colleen A.   Fri Aug 25 2017 08:18 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge Steve C   Sat Aug 26 2017 09:12 AM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge Kraig   Sat Aug 26 2017 10:07 AM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge txwxlearner   Sat Aug 26 2017 11:30 AM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge txwxlearner   Sun Aug 27 2017 11:09 AM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge JMII   Sun Aug 27 2017 05:53 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge Prospero   Sun Aug 27 2017 07:22 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 27 2017 07:44 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge Prospero   Sun Aug 27 2017 08:22 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge Prospero   Fri Aug 25 2017 09:11 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 20 2017 12:12 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge ftlaudbob   Sun Aug 20 2017 01:43 PM
. * * Re: HARVEY Lounge ftlaudbob   Sun Aug 20 2017 10:56 PM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge cieldumort   Wed Aug 16 2017 05:37 PM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge cieldumort   Tue Aug 15 2017 10:47 AM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge doug   Tue Aug 15 2017 12:11 PM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge doug   Wed Aug 16 2017 03:29 PM
. * * Re: E Atlantic Wave 91L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Aug 14 2017 11:44 AM
. * * Re: E Atlantic Wave 91L Lounge vpbob21   Mon Aug 14 2017 01:06 AM

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