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Catastrophic and life-threatening impacts are now underway. May everyone be safe. 140 MPH Cat 4 Hurricane Helene #FLwx #GAwx #SCwx #NCwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 1 (Helene) , Major: 1 (Helene) Florida - Any: 1 (Helene) Major: 1 (Helene)
PTC Helene
ADV#18 5:00 pm EDT
37.5N 85.5W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 984mb
Moving:
Nnw at 17 mph
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Hur Isaac
ADV#10 5:00 am EDT
39.3N 41.3W
Wind: 105MPH
Pres: 968mb
Moving:
Ne at 20 mph
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TS Joyce
ADV#4 5:00 am EDT
19.5N 45.3W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 1004mb
Moving:
Nw at 10 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2017 News Talkbacks
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Nick Humphrey
Meteorologist/Geographer


Reged:
Posts: 1
Loc: Lincoln,NE
Re: Remnants of Harvey Likely to Regenerate in the Gulf
      Wed Aug 23 2017 02:30 AM

I must say, for a system that hasn't even (re)developed yet, it's absolutely shocking to have such high degree of model agreement on scenarios. Somewhat equivalent to multiple independent medical tests giving you the same bad news. It certainly appear incredible amounts of rain may be the biggest story with the system. Obviously if the system drifts into LA, so does the torrential rain threat.



The heaviest total forecast rainfall from the latest 00Z GFS would be for Houston. However, as some may heave heard, even "lighter" heavy rain in New Orleans could be disastrous given their recent drainage problems.

With all that said, I do have some concerns about the actual intensity as well. Temps in the Gulf head of Harvey are running in the mid-80s and with much lighter shear than it is initially facing now.



I think it is realistic for it to quickly become a hurricane if develops an organized inner core quickly. Given trends (as of tonight) I am hopeful advisories are started very soon to get the alert out as the Texas Coast is also very surge prone...beyond wind damage problems.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Harvey Makes Landfall at Cat 4 MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 23 2017 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas Psyber   Sat Aug 26 2017 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 26 2017 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 26 2017 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 26 2017 12:02 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas JMII   Fri Aug 25 2017 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas Prospero   Fri Aug 25 2017 10:02 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2017 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas JMII   Fri Aug 25 2017 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2017 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas Prospero   Fri Aug 25 2017 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2017 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas Prospero   Fri Aug 25 2017 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2017 07:21 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas JMII   Fri Aug 25 2017 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas Psyber   Fri Aug 25 2017 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas JMII   Fri Aug 25 2017 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2017 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas Psyber   Fri Aug 25 2017 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Now a Major Hurricane cieldumort   Fri Aug 25 2017 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Nearly a Major Hurricane This Morning MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2017 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Nearly a Major Hurricane This Morning Bloodstar   Fri Aug 25 2017 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas Bloodstar   Fri Aug 25 2017 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2017 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas cieldumort   Fri Aug 25 2017 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas JMII   Fri Aug 25 2017 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas ERA   Fri Aug 25 2017 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas ERA   Fri Aug 25 2017 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Nearly a Major Hurricane This Morning MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2017 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas Myles   Fri Aug 25 2017 09:55 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas ERA   Fri Aug 25 2017 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2017 07:12 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas cieldumort   Fri Aug 25 2017 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas cieldumort   Fri Aug 25 2017 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Harvey Regenerates for Gulf Watches/Warnings up for Western Gulf MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2017 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Harvey Regenerates for Gulf Watches/Warnings up for Western Gulf MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 24 2017 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Harvey Regenerates for Gulf Watches/Warnings up for Western Gulf danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 24 2017 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Harvey Regenerates for Gulf Watches/Warnings up for Western Gulf MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 24 2017 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Harvey Regenerates for Gulf Watches/Warnings up for Western Gulf cieldumort   Thu Aug 24 2017 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Harvey Regenerates for Gulf Watches/Warnings up for Western Gulf Psyber   Thu Aug 24 2017 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 24 2017 11:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 24 2017 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas cieldumort   Thu Aug 24 2017 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 24 2017 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas cieldumort   Thu Aug 24 2017 07:56 AM
. * * Re: Harvey Regenerates for Gulf Watches/Warnings up for Western Gulf MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 24 2017 07:50 AM
. * * Re: Harvey Regenerates for Gulf Watches/Warnings up for Western Gulf cieldumort   Thu Aug 24 2017 12:10 AM
. * * Re: Harvey Regenerates for Gulf Watches/Warnings up for Western Gulf MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 23 2017 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Harvey Regenerates for Gulf Watches/Warnings up for Western Gulf MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 23 2017 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Harvey Regenerates for Gulf Watches/Warnings up for Western Gulf cieldumort   Wed Aug 23 2017 11:55 AM
. * * Re: Remnants of Harvey Likely to Regenerate in the Gulf MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 23 2017 11:46 AM
. * * Re: Remnants of Harvey Likely to Regenerate in the Gulf MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 23 2017 08:51 AM
. * * Re: Remnants of Harvey Likely to Regenerate in the Gulf MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 23 2017 07:52 AM
. * * Re: Remnants of Harvey Likely to Regenerate in the Gulf Nick Humphrey   Wed Aug 23 2017 02:30 AM

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