MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
Re: HARVEY Lounge
Wed Aug 23 2017 08:05 AM
|
|
|
Overnight model runs are extremely interesting, going to call out a few things not normally mentioned on this one.
6Z GFS takes the system into Texas near Matagorda on Saturday morning as a cat 1 (although strengthening at landfall), and slowly meanders it around eastern Texas, near Houston on Monday morning, then scoots it along eastward into Louisana and MS dropping incredible amounts of rainfall. This model has only a single landfall and is rain heavy.
0z Euro takes the system in near the same place on Saturday, as a strong TS or Cat 1 hurricane, stalls it out over land, then back into the Gulf Sunday night where it restrengthens into a hurricane, it then crawls along the texas coast and is just offhshore of houston as a category 2 hurricane, again raining like mad in Texas, likely a cat 2 hurricane at the time, then landfalls near Port Arthur midday on Tuesday. Rainfall estimates are in excess of 20" in many areas of Texas.
CMC landfalls in brownsville then hooks left into Mexico, seems less likely given current movement trends.
6z HWRF takes the system in as a 972mb hurricane (cat2), late Friday night, then basically stalls out over land in east Texas.
There is potential for rapid intensification before landfall with this system due to the position of the upper level low at the time (it's position relative to Harvey would enhance the spin)
The NAM mesoscal model at the newer 3k resolution shows Harvey approaching the Eastern Texas coast as a category 5 (897mb) hurricane, https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...=0&ypos=342
Although the NAM is not to be used as an intensity model and not a good tropical model, it is picking up the possibility that rapid intensification could happen.
In short from rainmaker to potentially major hurricane somewhere in Texas, slow moving (either on or offshore) would bring in crazy amounts of rain, and we hope it remains disorganized enough to not rapidly intensify before landfall. But those in Texas absolutely should be watching it, and for signs of strengthening, if RI were to happen there would not be much warning for it.
One good bit of news, most of the usual intensity models keeps the system below hurricane strength over the next 5 days. So the rainfall event is more likely than not, but the potential for intensification is there.
|
|
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Edit
Reply
Quote
