cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey Strengthening and Approaching Texas
Thu Aug 24 2017 10:21 AM
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Just a reminder, with Harvey undergoing RI and quite possibly becoming our first landfalling Major in over a decade, the Second Main Event is getting lost a bit in the media cycle.
To be plain, Harvey is likely going to be a high-end inland hurricane for longer than people realize, and only slowly weaken, wind-wise. What may not weaken much, if at all, will be Harvey's potential to create biblical rainfall, as the well-developed cyclone travels through a 'Brown Ocean,' that is Texas this year, and possibly tracks very slowly and/or stalls altogether and/or has one or more reemergence over the Gulf - Rainfall totals over wide areas may exceed 12", with localized totals possible in this set-up exceeding three feet. Three feet. This would likely result in several locations of severe, record-setting flooding, and countless other locations of major flooding.
For people well inland
>>> People living in any of Texas' most flood-prone locations that are within the entire cone of uncertainty should now be preparing to evacuate. Evacuating by Saturday, rather than waiting for the waters to block exits or come rushing to the front door, can save lives.
>>> People who live in portions of the state who only experience even rarely dangerous flooding, this means you should be paying very close attention, and at least consider evacuating by Saturday if you live within Harvey's entire cone of uncertainty.
>>> People who live within Harvey's core cone (and closer to the eyewall's expected track), who live in mobile homes or traditional structures but that are not sound, should begin planning to evacuate as well, especially so should Harvey become a major, which looks increasingly likely. An inland only slowly decaying Major Hurricane Harvey in this set-up could easily produce wind gusts in excess of 80MPH well inland, and possibly for an extended duration. Winds this strong can rip, flip or even destroy most mobile homes, and some traditional homes that are not structurally sound.
As always, these are personal opinions only. Please refer to your local NWS for official information.
The above time-tables are not my thoughts for people living right along, or closer to the coast, who would be wise to have evacuated by tomorrow morning.
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Aug 24 2017 01:59 PM)
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