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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 20 (Milton) , Major: 20 (Milton) Florida - Any: 20 (Milton) Major: 20 (Milton)
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Archives 2010s >> 2017 Forecast Lounge
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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: 92L Lounge
      Fri Aug 25 2017 08:59 AM

As expected with the consolidation of Harvey and its movement to the NW the shear from its outflow has decreased over the low in the SE GOM adjacent to the SW Florida coast. Signs of this began to appear yesterday as a vigorous line of thunderstorms moved off the coast between Charlotte Harbor and the mouth of Tampa Bay and continued this morning as T Storms in the GOM increased and a consistent drizzly rain has begun to fall from the dense overcast, each of which demonstrates an increase in instability in the atmosphere surrounding the low.
I am intrigued with the NHC's inclusion of "subtropical development" and its increase in the % of actual development. The WV this morning demonstrates that a trough has pushed down the peninsula to just north of I-4 corridor, which in my opinion is why there is more energy surrounding the system and increasing TStorms over the GOM. A similar dynamic developed as Charley moved into this area as a Cat 1 but exploded into a cat 5 in a matter of hours. What was interesting then was as the low deepened over the GOM the NW quadrant of the storm dried up as it moved inland. The center of the storm passed within 25 miles East of my house but we had virtually no rain and diminished winds. All of this is to illustrate that subtropical development could result intensification quickly in this system and not effect intensity but would alter its structure.
Today is a very important day in the future of this system and its effect on mainland US...Will it continue to show organization? Will it continue to develop in place; or, will it begin to move NE along the periphery of the trough and into the ATL as predicted.? Either way a wet couple of days will occur in Southern Florida.

--------------------
doug

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TEN Lounge cieldumort Fri Aug 25 2017 08:59 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 27 2017 03:14 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 27 2017 03:21 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge Prospero   Sun Aug 27 2017 08:45 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge Bev   Mon Aug 28 2017 06:49 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Mon Aug 28 2017 11:04 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge doug   Mon Aug 28 2017 10:55 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Aug 21 2017 10:31 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge cosmicstorm   Mon Aug 21 2017 05:41 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge Prospero   Mon Aug 21 2017 07:17 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge Prospero   Mon Aug 21 2017 08:31 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge doug   Tue Aug 22 2017 09:50 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge doug   Wed Aug 23 2017 09:58 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge doug   Thu Aug 24 2017 08:43 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge doug   Fri Aug 25 2017 08:59 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge JMII   Fri Aug 25 2017 12:04 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge doug   Fri Aug 25 2017 12:17 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge Prospero   Fri Aug 25 2017 07:05 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge Prospero   Fri Aug 25 2017 09:57 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 26 2017 12:12 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge Bev   Sat Aug 26 2017 10:50 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge cieldumort   Tue Aug 22 2017 09:47 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge weatherhead   Mon Aug 21 2017 02:20 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge cieldumort   Fri Aug 18 2017 11:30 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge JMII   Fri Aug 18 2017 12:19 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge doug   Fri Aug 18 2017 02:05 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge cieldumort   Fri Aug 18 2017 12:47 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge Bev   Fri Aug 18 2017 11:42 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge doug   Sat Aug 19 2017 07:32 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge Prospero   Sat Aug 19 2017 09:00 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge Robert   Sun Aug 20 2017 03:09 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge ljmax   Sun Aug 20 2017 07:20 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge doug   Mon Aug 21 2017 09:34 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge JMII   Mon Aug 21 2017 10:05 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge Prospero   Mon Aug 21 2017 10:09 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge doug   Sun Aug 20 2017 07:08 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge JMII   Fri Aug 18 2017 11:01 AM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 17 2017 02:44 PM
. * * Re: 92L Lounge Prospero   Thu Aug 17 2017 09:22 PM

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