Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) notes that with regard to the most recent ECMWF, which has a wide spread later in the period, the CFAN Wx/Climate EPS "High Probability Cluster" shows the best ensemble members (by initialization score) favor the Gulf.
Something to watch over the next few days to see if the other Euro members come into line with this (along with other globals, such as the GFS.)
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