Quote: Five days is a long time in Hurricane forecasting!
Just for fun, this was a post on August 20th with Harvey 5 days out from landfall:
Quote: cieldumort (Sun Aug 20 2017 12:12 PM ): WSI Calibrated ECMWF EPS now showing a greater than 90% chance that Harvey regenerates.
While the GFS runs should not yet be fully discounted, it is my personal opinion that the new GFS (since the July 19 upgrade) has not performed as admirably with Atlantic tropical cyclones as might be desired, and even in the face of a dramatic convective resurgence this morning, the latest runs (20/0z, 20/06z and now the 20/12z) still do mostly nothing with now x-Harvey... maybe a TD crossing Belize, or forming in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, at best. These runs now run entirely counter to the Euro, and defy the eyes.
Now awaiting the restarting of the TC-specific models HWRF & HMON. Run, runs, run.
Quote: ftlaudbob (Sun Aug 20 2017 01:43 PM ): Harvey looks alive and well.Should be an upgrade soon.
Quote: ftlaudbob (Sun Aug 20 2017 10:56 PM ): And just like that, it died out again.
Harvey did not die, and by the morning of August 22nd it was a totally different story:
Quote: cieldumort (Tue Aug 22 2017 09:30 AM ): Model consensus for south Texas this Friday is growing much more concerning. HWRF, HMON, GFS, ECMWF, GEM & GFS Ensemble Members with almost 100% unanimity on a landfalling Texas hurricane Cat 1 to Major. Some runs hang it around just inland, others around the coast - with potential for very severe flooding if either of those scenarios verify (inland and/or coastal)...
Yes,that is how it went down.Havey was dead on the 20th.
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 1234519
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center