cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Trof in Bay of Campeche
Sun Sep 03 2017 01:20 AM
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Troffiness has been persistent in the Bay of Campeche for several days, and a few models' runs are once again sniffing out some development in the southwestern GOM during the coming week.
While not a strong development signal from most runs, we are now in the heart of not just any season, but what by all appearances is a serious one, so this thread will stay up and running until the threat, including that from development - if any - has completely passed.
0z September 3 Model Runs
GFS
Possible small, short-lived TD forms just offshore of Tampico, MX by 12z Thursday Sept 7 and gets shunted w/sw/s within 24 hours *in response to Mega Hurricane Irma* passing well to its ENE to NE. (Suffice it to say, if Irma has other plans, this track may not be valid). By Monday Sept 11, its remnants are sent scooting across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and into the East Pac, dry air pouring down behind it. Possible redevelopment in the East Pac beyond 10 days, and may attempt to track back north through the isthmus around the 14th - 18th.
CMC
Rapid development of a TD-TS offshore of Tampico, MX by 12z Monday Sept 4. Shunted off to the E/SE/S in response to Mega Hurricane Irma. Makes landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the southern Bay of Campeche midday Thursday Sept 7, and then crosses the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and into the East Pac over the next day or so, where its remnants split in two - The easternmost remnant residual vorticity is swept NW-NNW from up and out of the East Pac by Mega Hurricane Irma, and becomes a new TD just south of Cuba Tuesday Sept 12, tracking northwest. The westernmost remnant helps energize a preexisting tropical cyclone (TS) just south of the isthmus, and this TC then crosses back north across and back into the extreme southern Bay of Campeche by 0z Wednesday Sept 13. That all should be enough to make anyone's head spin. Even more so if it verifies!
NAVGEM
Possible TD by 06z Wednesday Sept 6 off the coast of Tampico, MX. Tracks SW in response to Mega Hurricane Irma and makes landfall as a TS in the southern Bay of Campeche by 12z Saturday Sept 9. End of run.
ECMWF
Possible TD by 0z Wednesday Sept 4 off the coast of Tampico, MX. Over the next several days is shredded and sent flying SSW across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and into the East Pac in response to Mega Hurricane Irma.
In summary, if recent Irma forecasts come close to verifying, these genesis models do cook something up in the region, but quickly send it south across Mexico and into the East Pac. We'll be watching.
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