Afternoon models 18z GFS misses Caribbean islands to the north, (barely,they will still get affects), Friday morning over Turks and caicos cat 4, and moves through nearly all of the Bahamas through Sunday where it's over Great Abaco as a cat 5.then moves due north, staying east of Florida. Landfall near Wilmington, NC Overnight between Sep 11 and 12th as a cat 5 hurricane,
12Z Euro is further west over the Bahamas, but curves rapidly out to sea (Closest point to the us is sept 12).
Overall the entire East coast should be watching Irma, and hoping the out to sea scenario happens (like the Euro) Things are not looking good for the Bahamas, and the Northeast Caribbean may get some issues from the storm, but hopefully misses the core of Irma. Trying to specify where Irma will go at this point beyond 5 days is irresponsible, the western shifts are troubling for Florida, but odds still favor NC or out to sea. These aren't great odds though. So it really is too soon for any serious speculation on continental UI impacts.
GFS is likely overdoing the low pressures as well, it's very unusual to have cat 5 conditions last very long, so I'm hoping that is just overkill on the models part, odds are its way too strong (although Irma may very well be still very strong)
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 1221903
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center