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The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins on June 1st, 2022. Normal Tropical Weather Outlooks Resume May 15th.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 134 (Nicholas) , Major: 150 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1204 (Michael) Major: 1204 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2114
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Low in SW Gulf
      Mon Sep 04 2017 07:39 PM

The trof in the southwest GOM is trying to close off - at least near the surface - based on recent satellite trends (as we have not had a recent scatterometer pass to look down at the surface). This Low will likely be designated Invest 95L soon.

Wind shear could be just supportive enough to allow continued organization over the next few days as to allow some meaningful development to occur, and a named storm is possible. Modeling strongly suggests that the US Gulf states north southernmost Texas should be spared any impacts - that this is and will be more of a threat for Mexico - at least in the near to mid range. Beyond seven days there are some indications it could loop back around towards the US, but that remains almost a long shot.

Potential for downstream impacts on Irma track and intensity are TBD.

Maximum sustained winds based on available buoy and ship reports appear to be on the rise - now up to about 30 knots - and pressures are falling. If this low sufficiently closes off and becomes defined at the surface overnight tonight, it is conceivable it could be an officiated TD as soon as tomorrow morning.



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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* HUR Katia Lounge cieldumortModerator Mon Sep 04 2017 07:39 PM
. * * Re: HUR Katia Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 10 2017 12:46 AM
. * * Re: TS Katia Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 06 2017 06:18 AM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Sep 05 2017 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Low in SW Gulf cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 04 2017 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Trof in Bay of Campeche cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 03 2017 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Possible New Development in Gulf Prospero   Fri Sep 01 2017 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Possible New Development in Gulf cieldumortModerator   Sat Sep 02 2017 02:58 AM
. * * Re: Possible New Development in Gulf EMS   Sat Sep 02 2017 10:28 AM

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