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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.**
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2313
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 95L Lounge
      Tue Sep 05 2017 05:32 AM

Clean ASCAT pass from 0327z. Right where models progged development to begin (this is also a historically favored region for tropical cyclogenesis).

Fairly well defined surface circulation just offshore of Tampico, MX, but showers and thunderstorms remain sparse, fleeting, and insufficiently organized. There is a better chance later today, Tuesday, and tomorrow, Wednesday, of enough of a break in the moderately strong wind shear that has been plaguing this system for some development.

Regardless of development, potentially heavy rains will likely persist over eastern Mexico for much of this week.



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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* HUR Katia Lounge cieldumort Tue Sep 05 2017 05:32 AM
. * * Re: HUR Katia Lounge cieldumort   Sun Sep 10 2017 04:46 AM
. * * Re: TS Katia Lounge cieldumort   Wed Sep 06 2017 10:18 AM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge cieldumort   Tue Sep 05 2017 05:32 AM
. * * Re: Low in SW Gulf cieldumort   Mon Sep 04 2017 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Trof in Bay of Campeche cieldumort   Sun Sep 03 2017 05:20 AM
. * * Re: Possible New Development in Gulf Prospero   Sat Sep 02 2017 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Possible New Development in Gulf cieldumort   Sat Sep 02 2017 06:58 AM
. * * Re: Possible New Development in Gulf EMS   Sat Sep 02 2017 02:28 PM

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