nhc/tpc has gone and dropped some stuff prematurely.
93/94L or 90/91L, as they were being tracked under both names, were dropped this morning, with the dvorak being given as 1.5 on both at 0545z, then not reissued. 90/93 lost its convective nature over cooler waters, and 91/94 supposedly merged with a front. funny how today it looks as good as ever.. more pressed against the front than part of it. anyhow that sort of surprised me this morning, and now the thing is still there.. well, everybody voted that they wouldnt be classified.. and they arent. maybe they will post analyze one or the other as a subtrop or something much later on.. but i sort of doubt that (like the system in mid august of 2000).
there are two other things going on, as for some reason the empty, sheared basin suddenly came to life a few days ago and has multiple convective complexes at mid latitudes that arent falling apart.
last night one formed southeast of bermuda, and is still there, along with a little twist that may be mid level or surface, the Lord only knows. i expect nothing of it, like its brethren, as it may be a weak system that will never be classified.
the most interesting area is the gulf. convection is continuing there, and there is already a broad surface trough in the area. the recon will only go out tomorrow if it starts looking more ominous, right now it isnt all that threatening.. but it has a couple days to become so. regardless this will be another big batch of tropical moisture ready to come calling on texas, just where it isnt needed.
there are other less interesting areas of convection near florida, cuba, the bahamas. nothing is showing signs of development there.
still plenty going on, but nothing developing in a hurry.
not much noise from the regulars on the site, guess the 4th weekend has everybody out and about.
HanKFranK aiken, SC 2133z06july
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