I see what the NAM is doing, for whatever reason, it's ignoring the trough over AL and MS, and instead is taking the jet off the east coast to pull Irma to the east.
The models have decided to run Irma up the middle of florida for 00z, Not much time left for anything unexpected to happen, So south florida is looking pretty committed to a direct hit. Will it be east, central, or west of southern florida, that's the remaining question I think?
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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