Latest ECMWF (model has outperformed others with Irma) strongly suggests that the cyclone will ride along or just inland of the Cuban coastline for at least another 18 hours or so, and on this track Irma would have some significant and ongoing land interaction. The center would be traveling across lowlands at least off and on - possibly continuously -- and the broader circulation wound likely have at least some disruption from hills. But even on this track, the model shows only modest weakening.
The most recent recon pass found that Irma's pressure has already gone up several millibars, likely as a result of this continued westward track - into portions of Cuba. Given the degradation on satellite, along with the weakening noted in the last recon pass, it is possible that the Euro is understating the amount of weakening that will occur. However, keep in mind that once Irma gets mostly to all back out over water, restrengthening will probably commence, regardless.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 1040677
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center